What are the chances of a white Christmas in Illinois? A new prediction is out

Chicago Weather What are the chances of a white Christmas in Illinois? A new prediction is out If you're dreaming of a white Christmas, there's a new prediction out that you might want to know about. By Alex Dvorak • Published November 6, 2026 • Updated on November 6, 2026 at 11:19 am What are the chances of a white Christmas in Chicago this year? If you're dreaming of one, there's a new prediction out that you might want to know about. Stream NBC 5 for free, 24/7, wherever you are. WATCH HERE The Farmer's Almanac released its 2026 outlook for a white Christmas and the results varied, even within the Midwest. The good news for the Chicago area? The prediction shows "there's a chance." Meanwhile, in the upper Midwest and "Heartland" regions, there's "not a chance." Only a few regions across the country appear to have a prediction of holiday snow. "This year, the Northeast, Intermountain, and Alaska regions are forecast to have a white Christmas, while several other U.S. regions have a chance," the almanac states. Weather Chicago Weather 3 hours ago Saturday forecast: Chilly day ahead Chicago Weather 21 hours ago Friday night forecast The predictions don't specify just how much of a chance there will be, however. According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, at least 1 inch of snow must be on the ground on Dec. 25 to consider it a white Christmas. The National Weather Service reported the Chicago area and northern Illinois have a promising chance of at least once inch of snow on Christmas, according to historical data. NWS Still, in recent years, that probability hasn't leaned in favor of snow. Only three of the last 10 years have seen at least 1 to 3 inches of snowfall on the ground for the holiday. NOAA In the past 50 years, the region has reported only 18 white Christmases. 2022 2017 2016 2010 2009 2008 2003 2002 2000 1998 1993 1989 1984 1983 1980 1978 1977 Not to mention, predictions of a strengthening El Niño pattern in the Pacific Ocean have been igniting winter weather predictions across the country. El Niño patterns don’t always have the same effects on weather in the Midwest, but according to the University of Illinois, they have historically been linked to warmer and drier winters. That could mean above-average temperatures and less snowfall than normal, especially if the pattern persists into the spring months. The latest outlook from the Climate Prediction Center showed a "greater than 90% chance of a very strong event during the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter 2026-27." "During the October-December 2026 season, there is a 69% chance of a historic event that would exceed the strength of previous El Niño events dating back to 1950," the prediction stated. But NBC 5 Storm Team Meteorologist Kevin Jeanes recently noted that some forecast models are pointing to an unusually early disruption of the polar vortex that could influence weather patterns across the Northern Hemisphere. The NOAA has acknowledged the potential for an unusually early warming event. If it meets the criteria for a major SSW, it could be the earliest documented on record, going back to the late 1950s. It's possible that the event could lead to colder weather in Illinois, but a disruption of the polar vortex doesn't automatically mean Arctic air will plunge into the Midwest. It can take weeks for changes roughly 20 miles above the ground to influence weather at the surface. For Chicago, the developing disruption could increase the likelihood of colder weather during late November or December. If the effects persist, that colder pattern could last several weeks. This article tagged under: Chicago Weather